Tourism Destinations Change

Whether international tourism has recovered to pre-pandemic levels is perhaps the most discussed question in the expert community. Against the backdrop of figures growing by leaps and bounds, experts started comparing current figures with those of 2019, hoping that the challenges that severely undermined the tourism industry during the Covid-19 lockdown are finally over. However, the past five years are not just a story about the number of tourists; the tourism itself has changed, with its destinations shifting towards Asia.

According to the UN Tourism (former UNWTO), international tourism has actually returned to pre-pandemic levels in the first seven months of 2024, having recovered by 96 percent. According to experts, this happened due to robust demand in Europe and the opening markets in the Asia-Pacific region.

According to the new World Tourism Barometer (a study on the world tourism development), about 790 mn travelers went abroad during this period, up 11 percent compared to 2023, and just 4 percent below the 2019 level. The data points to a strong start of the year, followed by a more subdued second quarter.

These results confirm the UN Tourism’s forecast for a full recovery of international tourism by the end of 2024, even in the face of ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

According to Svetlana Morozova, Director of the Southeast Asia Department of the Spectrum tour operator, international tourism has practically recovered, not fully, but close to 100 percent. Moreover, the number of Russian tourists in the 2024-2025 season is expected to reach the pre-pandemic level, and even exceed it, she says.

In an interview with EcoTourism EXPERT, she mentioned the factors contributing to this.

- Firstly, the factors that contribute to reaching the pre-pandemic level include new direct flights, in particular, to Indonesia. Southeast Asia is the most easily accessible destination for Russian tourists, primarily due to direct flights.

The Chinese direction is developing by leaps and bounds, with the tours to mainland and island (Hainan) areas. Direct flights are made to Indonesia, direct flights to Malaysia are expected to start in the nearest future and are under discussion, there are direct flights to Vietnam, albeit not with the most convenient connections, since airplanes fly only to Ho Chi Minh City now. As soon as charter or regular flights to Phu Quoc Island start, the tourist flows to Vietnam will increase significantly.

The traditional top tourism destinations are Turkey, Egypt and Thailand, and the Russian tourists’ arrivals increase each season. Moreover, while the summer months were classified as low season in all previous years, one cannot say so now because there are many tourists traveling in the summer months - as many as in the winter months.

Southeast Asia is now the most accessible destination for Russian tourists. The air corridors have now changed significantly, so there is no such a global difference in flight times now: earlier an 8-hour flight to Thailand or a 4-hour flight to Turkey influenced the tourists’ choice of their travel destination, a 6-hour flight to Turkey or an 8-hour flight to Thailand make no great difference now. And as for prices, accommodation and meals in Thailand are much more budget-friendly than in Turkey.

According to Svetlana Morozova, the main trends in Southeast Asia now include entering the Chinese tourism market, and the Russians are very interested in this tourism destination:

- There are a huge number of opportunities due to the country’s size, there are both excursion tours and medical ones. By the way, Chinese medicine is among the popular trends, tourists from the Russian Federation show a great interest in this type of tourism again, and the existing hotels in Hainan are certainly fully booked at some places by domestic tourists, especially on national holidays, for example, in the Chinese Spring Festival season, also known as Chinese New Year, so there are no quotas for February, and the hotel room prices will be dynamic. While there are quotas for all hotels for the rest of the tourist season, this is not the case in February during the Chinese New Year holidays.

When direct flights start, Vietnam is expected to definitely enter the tourism market, now the tourist flow to this country is small. India has lost its positions greatly, although the country is going to invest in tourism again now. But there are certain obstacles: while Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Hainan are visa-free, tourists still require a visa, albeit an electronic one, to go to India, which complicates the procedure for organizing trips to this country. In addition, the number of hotel rooms in India is not very large because the Goa coastline - the main beach state in the country - is just 110 kilometers long. Domestic tourism cannot be neglected, either, especially after the Covid-19 pandemic, as it has grown significantly over the past years, and it’s very difficult to confirm bookings at some hotels now because they actually focus on the domestic tourists.

Of course, Sri Lanka is another popular tourism destination in Southeast Asia, with direct flights - regular and charter ones - made to this country. Recently, Myanmar has opened, but the tourist flows to this country are not expected to be very large as well as to Laos and Cambodia. As for Myanmar, it is important to take into account the unstable political situation, because air traffic is sometimes opened or closed due to periodic coups d’état.

Secondly, traveling to Myanmar, like to India, has a seasonal nature - it is no pleasure to go there in the summer season because of monsoon rains. In Thailand, for example, it’s not raining around the clock, but the situation in Myanmar and India is different, with strong storms, etc. Again, Thailand has numerous islands, and India can only offer medical tourism in the state of Kerala in addition to Goa beach, the ocean in Kerala area is not good for swimming, and people go there for other purposes. Therefore, as for tourist flows, India can never be as good as Thailand with its opportunities, including not fully explored excursion opportunities. In addition, Thailand opens the way to the so-called ‘Indochina Triangle’, which also includes Laos and Myanmar.

Sri Lanka, China, Thailand, Indonesia and, to a lesser extent, Malaysia are the main tourism destinations. Malaysia is partly held back due to the lack of direct flights, although traveling to Malaysia can be well combined with traveling to Singapore.

The Philippines used to be very popular, but getting there now and changing airplanes keeps many people from traveling to this country.

Speaking about the general international situation in the tourism sector, one can say that over the past five years, it has not lost its image, but the tourism market, in general, has reoriented towards Asia. But still, of course, the Russians go primarily to Turkey and Egypt. The tourist flows to Europe have also remained, although they reduced greatly, Svetlana Morozova sums up.

In the first seven months of 2024, all regions of the world reported generally good results, helped by improved air connections and simplified procedure of issuing visas. However, in relative terms, the Middle East was the fastest growing region because in the first seven months of 2024, the number of foreign tourists to the Arab countries increased by 26 percent compared to 2019.

Africa received 7 percent more visitors than in the same period of 2019.

In seven months, the number of visitors to Europe and the USA reached 99 percent and 97 percent of the pre-pandemic levels, respectively.

The Asia-Pacific region recorded 82 percent of the pre-pandemic tourist flow (down 18 percent than in 2019), and in June-July, this figure increased to 85-86 percent.

In the first half of the year, 67 tourism destinations out of 120 ones around the world fully recovered and showed their 2019 levels. However, the countries that showed the greatest improvement in this indicator were Qatar (+147 percent compared to 2019), which recorded a two-fold increase in tourist arrivals, Albania (+93 percent), El Salvador (+81 percent), Saudi Arabia (+73 percent), the Republic of Moldova (+50 percent compared to June), and Tanzania (+49 percent).

The UN Tourism Confidence Index shows a positive outlook for the rest of the year, with an index of 120 for the period from September to December 2024. For the period from May to August, the UN Tourism Confidence Index was 130 (on a scale from 0 to 200, where 100 represents equal expected results). Some 47 percent of tourism experts surveyed expect further improvement in the tourism sector’s performance by the end of the year, while 41 percent predict similar results and 11 percent foresee a decline. This reflects a gradual normalization of tourism performance following a strong performance in 2023.

However, experts note that inflation in the travel and tourism sector, particularly high transport and accommodation costs, are the main challenge facing this sector today, along with broader economic issues including labor shortages and extreme weather conditions.

However, the international travel market expects 2024 to be a record year for global traveling and tourism, with the sector’s economic contribution reaching $11.1 trillion. According to the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC), this creates up to 348 mn jobs worldwide. The forecasts are that this sector is expected to employ 449 mn people worldwide over the next decade.

It is worth noting that the vast majority of countries in the world are relying now on tourism as an important source of their state revenue, while each market player is looking for its own specific ways to attract foreign tourists: some of them still rely on sightseeing and excursions, or offer to enjoy the vacations on a beach, others offer their developments in medical tourism, and some travel companies develop esoteric, ethnic or other types of tourism - all of them do their best to occupy their own unique niche.

Overall, according to market experts, the above figures highlight the growing economic effect of the travel and tourism sector and indicate a strong recovery and growth of the tourism industry. As expected, interconnected relationships, global cooperation and the growing sustainable tourism practices will determine the trajectory of the tourism industry’s development in the coming years.