International tourism almost reached the pre-pandemic level in the 1st quarter of 2024
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International tourism almost reached the pre-pandemic level in the 1st quarter of 2024

Expert Reports  
05-28-2024
 

In the first quarter of 2024 the number of international tourist arrivals reached 97% of the pre-pandemic level.

According to the United Nations World Tourism Organization, more than 285 million tourists traveled abroad between January and March, which is about 20% more than in the first quarter of 2023.

In 2023, the number of international tourist arrivals reached 89% of the 2019 level, and financial revenues from tourism amounted to 96%. At the same time, the industry's share in global GDP reached the level of 2019.

In 2024, the UN expects a full recovery of international tourism with a 2% increase in the influx of travelers compared to the level of 2019.

In the first quarter of 2024, the highest increase in tourist arrivals was recorded in the Middle East, where they exceeded the pre-pandemic level by 36%, which is 4% more than in the same period in 2023.

In 2023, it was the Middle East that became the first region in the world to return to the indicators before the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic (+22%).

In turn, Europe, the largest tourist region in the world, exceeded the pre-pandemic figures for the first time (+1% compared to the first quarter of 2019). In the first three months of this year, the Old World received 120 million international tourists.

They arrived in Africa in the first quarter of 2024 by 5% more than in the same period of 2019, and by 13% more than in the first quarter of 2023.

The American continent has almost returned to the pre–pandemic dynamics - the number of tourist arrivals has reached 99% of the level of 2019.

International tourism is experiencing a rapid rise in the Asia-Pacific region, where the number of tourist arrivals has reached 82% of the level in 2019. At the same time, in 2023, the tourism industry in the region recovered by 65%.

"The recovery of the industry is great news for the economy and the millions of people involved in it. But it also reminds us of the need to pursue an adequate tourism policy and manage destinations in a way that promotes sustainability and inclusivity, taking into account external factors and the impact of the sector on resources and communities," commented Zurab Pololikashvili, Secretary General of the United Nations Tourism Organization.

At the sub-regional level, North Africa showed the best performance in the first quarter of 2014, where the number of international tourist arrivals increased by 23% compared to 2019. North Africa is followed by Central America (+15%), the Caribbean and Western Europe (+7% each).

Mediterranean Europe exceeded the pre-pandemic level by 1%, while South America almost reached the level of 2019. Northern Europe recovered by 98%, while sub-Saharan Africa and North America recovered by 95%.

According to the UN, many tourist destinations around the world continued to show good results in the first quarter of 2024, including Qatar (+177% compared to the first quarter of 2019), Albania (+121%), Saudi Arabia (+98%), El Salvador (+90%), Tanzania (+53%), Curacao (+45%), Serbia (+43%), Turks and Caicos Islands (+42%), Guatemala (+41%) and Bulgaria (+38%).

Good indicators of international tourism are also reflected in the UN Tourism Confidence Index, which reached 130 points (on a scale from 0 to 200) for the period from January to April, which is higher than forecast expectations of 122 points.

Revenues from international tourism reached 1.5 billion US dollars in 2023. This indicator indicates a complete recovery of the pre-pandemic level in nominal terms and by 97% in real terms, adjusted for inflation.

As for the regions, in 2023, the largest revenues from tourism were received in Europe, where they amounted to 660 billion US dollars, which is 7% higher than in 2019.

In the Middle East, revenues increased by 33% compared to the pre-pandemic year. For their part, North and South America and Africa returned to income levels in 2019 by 96% and 95%, respectively.

As for the Asia-Pacific region, revenues to the industry budget there have recovered by 78%.

In 2023, total export revenues from international tourism, including revenue and passenger transportation, reached $1.7 billion, which is approximately 96% of the level of 2019.

The direct contribution of tourism to global GDP reached the pre-pandemic level in 2023 and amounted to approximately $3.3 billion (3% of GDP).

According to the UN, in the first quarter of 2024, several tourist destinations achieved outstanding revenue results compared to 2019: Serbia (+127%), Turkey (+82%), Pakistan (+72%), Tanzania (+62%), Portugal (+61%), Romania (+57%), Japan (+53%), Mongolia (+50%), Mauritius (+46%) and Morocco (+44%).

The UN expects international tourism to fully recover in 2024 due to high demand, increased air traffic and the ongoing recovery of China and other major Asian markets.

Sixty-two percent of tourism experts surveyed expect better (53%) or much better (9%) industry results over a four-month period in the northern hemisphere, while 31% predict results similar to those obtained last year.

According to the UN Group of Experts on tourism, economic and geopolitical issues remain a serious problem for international tourism.

The latest IMF forecast for the global economy in April foreshadows a stable but slow recovery in the global tourism industry. At the same time, persistent inflation, high interest rates, oil price volatility and trade problems continue to keep transportation and living expenses at a high level.

In a situation with rising prices and difficult economic conditions, the UN recommends that tourists continue to strive to find the most profitable tours and travel within the borders of their region. 

In addition, for many travelers, the choice of destination can be influenced by extreme temperatures and other weather events.

UN experts also associate significant risks for international tourism with the situation in Ukraine, the conflict between Israel and Hamas and other growing geopolitical tensions.

As international tourism continues to recover and develop, contributing to economic growth and employment worldwide, governments need to continue to adapt and improve tourism management practices at the national and local levels, the United Nations World Tourism Organization recommends.