Africa is breaking apart faster than previously thought. In 2005, a 35-mile (56 km) crack appeared in the Ethiopian desert, and since then, it has been widening at a rate of half an inch (1.27 cm) per year, with the expansion rate being higher in the northern regions.
Previously, researchers believed the split would take tens of millions of years, but Professor Ken Macdonald from the University of California, Santa Barbara, now suggests this could happen within a period of one to five million years. Ultimately, he believes this massive crack will lead to the division of the African continent, followed by the formation of a new continent and ocean on Earth.
"What will happen is that the Indian Ocean will rush in and flood what is now the East African Rift Valley," the scientist explained, noting that if water continues to flow into the area, the new ocean could become as deep as the Atlantic Ocean.
The rift passes through Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania, and half of Ethiopia, and eventually, according to the professor, will create a new "Nubian continent."
This region also hosts two tectonic plates—the Somali and Nubian plates—which are actively moving apart. While both plates are moving very slowly, Macdonald pointed out, this is impressive given the vast size of Africa.
The crack occurred in the East African Rift System—a fault line stretching 2,000 miles (more than 3,200 km) that formed at least 22 million years ago in the region of the continent's great lakes.
Earth's lithosphere, consisting of the Earth's crust and the upper part of the mantle, is divided into several tectonic plates, but the mechanisms of their movement are still not fully understood. Some researchers suggest that the mechanism involves slow circular motions of molten rock, partly driven by heat rising from the Earth's core. Regardless, plate movement is taking place in the East African Rift System.
"There are shifts and faults causing seismic activity, as well as visible signs of active volcanoes," Macdonald said. "In recent years, studies have been conducted to precisely define the direction of the branches of this fault system. In the northern part, it passes through Djibouti and enters Kenya, but until recently, nobody had any idea that it was moving south from there."
To understand what is happening underground, scientists used satellite gravity data and seismic research results.
"East Africa lies on the Somali plate," explained expert and former NASA and Space Force consultant Alexandra Dotten. "The line along the boundary is formed by the Great African Lakes, some of the largest on Earth and containing 25% of the planet's fresh water. This is also home to about 10% of all the fish species on Earth."
According to Dotten, the lakes were formed due to the gradual separation of East Africa from the rest of the continent. This Somali plate continues to move eastward, creating a gigantic rift. Eventually, she believes, East Africa will become a new continent, separated from the rest of Africa by a new ocean.
In 2024, a study published in Frontiers in Earth Science revealed that different parts of the East African Rift System exhibit varying levels of volcanic activity. "Uganda, Tanzania, eastern and southern parts of Congo, and the Kaapvaal Craton show shallow, high-density fractures under which there are low-density cracks, seemingly originating from deeper layers, indicating thinning of the lithosphere with some degree of melting at the base," the report states. Cracks also appeared in Kenya in 2018 after heavy rains, with some locals reporting underground tremors they felt.
Researchers predict that such "fractures" will continue to appear as the two plates move further apart, and Madagascar will eventually split into two separate islands.
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