Jane Lenz
Correspondent 
Increasing body weights and heights of humans coupled with the population growth could lead to food shortages in the foreseeable future. A study by researchers at the University of Göttingen forecasting the possible change in the calorie intake between 2010 and 2100 estimates that global food consumption could rise by 80 per cent by the end of the century.
To a greater extent, by 60%, this will be due to the population growth but another important factor that has not been taken into account earlier will make a significant contribution - people are becoming larger and they need 20% more food. According to the studies by Professor Stephan Klasen and Dr. Lutz Depenbusch, a rising Body Mass Index (BMI) alongside increasing body heights is seen across most countries.
A detailed analysis was carried out by the researchers on the example of two countries, almost diametrically opposed in many respects - the Netherlands and Mexico. In one of the poorest Latin American countries, the consumption growth was primarily due to a sharp increase in the BMI. Until the 1980s, malnutrition was the biggest dietary issue in Mexico, but by 2010, seven out of ten Mexicans were overweight, with a third person clinically obese.
At the same time, in the Netherlands, people have become much taller due to changes in the food patterns. Dutch men now have an average height of 183 cm, an increase of 13.1 cm between 1914 and 2014. For comparison, in the UK, men have seen an average height increase of 11cm ‘only’ over the same period, with an average man now standing 178 cm tall. In this case, of course, a larger body requires more calories to maintain vital functions and normal functioning.
According to the authors of the work, the rapid changes recorded earlier in both countries can be used as a benchmark for changing the food consumption patterns around the world. They warn that if the global food production does not meet growing needs, it will not be possible to deal with this issue only through a planned reduction in the BMI. While the rich can maintain their dietary habits, the poor will suffer higher prices due to increased demand.
“This would lead to increased consumption of cheap food, often rich in calories but poor in nutrients,” said Dr. Depenbusch. “As a result, body weight among the poor would continue to rise alongside malnutrition and poorer health outcomes.”
The study also showed that the additional increase in food required to maintain larger humans by the end of the century “amounts to more than the combined calorie requirements of India and Nigeria in 2010. These increases would particularly affect Sub-Saharan African countries, which will already face massively rising calorie requirements due to the high population growth.”
The study is published in the journal PLOS ONE.
