The ice cover in the Arctic Ocean will not disappear by the middle of the century, and the conditions in the Arctic seas will remain close to their current state. This was reported by the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (AARI).
According to Russian scientists, between 2030 and 2050, there will be another phase of cooling in the 70-year temperature fluctuation cycle, and ice conditions in the Arctic seas will be similar to the present ones. Even in the "easiest" year, the Arctic seas will be ice-free only from August to October.
Minor changes in the ice cover in the Arctic were observed in the 1990s, but sharp changes began in the early 2000s. Over the course of seven years, the area of Arctic sea ice at the seasonal minimum in September decreased by 40% compared to the same period over the entire history of regular satellite observations since 1979.
"In recent years, the summer ice area, although varying from year to year, has generally remained at a new average level, which is approximately 20-25% less than the levels observed between 1979 and 2000," the institute noted.
According to scientists, the lowest levels of ice extent in the Northern Sea Route were reached in September 2020, at 26,300 square kilometers. However, in 2021, the ice area during this period increased by nearly 200,000 square kilometers, and in 2023 it grew to 316,000 square kilometers, even though the temperature in the Russian Arctic that year was 1.12 degrees Celsius higher than usual.
Earlier, scientists from Gothenburg University presented a study suggesting that there is a risk that the ice cover in the Arctic may completely melt during the summer due to climate change. They predict that this could happen by 2030, possibly as early as 2027.
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