In a special China-focused study, M1nd-set, a Swiss research agency says taking into consideration shopper behavioural changes, consumer confidence, and the Chinese consumer’s relentless desire to travel, the year 2021 will mark the return to growth for the travel retail sector in China.
According to m1nd-set’s Business 1ntelligence Service (B1S) traffic and shopper insights data tool, China will see an increase of more than 200% in international departures in 2021, to reach circa 30 million international departures.
Also, pre-Covid levels are expected to return by 2023, when outbound traffic is forecast to reach 88 million following 108% growth in 2022 and 44% in 2023.
This growth forecasts come despite travel restrictions imposed ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday, which saw 28 million Chinese consumers in lockdown following a renewed outbreak of the Covid pandemic in the northern Heilongjiang and Hebei provinces.
M1nd-set’s China market research also details the profile of the Chinese traveller, the impact of the pandemic on their daily life, and in particular the impact on their travel behaviour. According to m1nd-set, improved testing and containment measures, accompanied by the arrival of the vaccine, the latest outbreak is not expected to generate as significant a blow as when the pandemic first erupted over 12 months ago.
More than half (53%) of Chinese travellers interviewed said their household income was negatively impacted as a result of the pandemic, moderately lower than the global average of 55%, with a drop of between 5% and 20% compared to pre-Covid levels in China.
In terms of international travel uptake, one third of Chinese travellers said they would travel again not immediately, but within the first 6 months after restrictions are lifted. The Covid-19 vaccine will inevitably have a highly positive impact in China as 97% of Chinese travellers are willing to receive the vaccine, the majority of whom said they would prefer to get vaccinated as early as possible. The Chinese are more likely to consider travelling again if they have received the vaccine compared to global travellers.
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