Anastasia Makarova
correspondent, EcoTourism Expert 
The climate simulators used to forecast warming have suddenly started giving us less time. According to Bloomberg, for unclear reasons not understood by scientists, they independently gave far worse scenarios.
The climate models, including those used by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, predict anthropogenic climate warming by 4-5oC by the end of the 21st century, which is about a third higher than the previous forecasts.
At the same time, for almost forty years, all existing climate models have suggested a 3oC increase in the average temperature of the Earth if CO2 doubles. Last year, the models forecasted an average increase by 3.86oC, and some - by over 5oC. It is believed that 5oC is the point of no return in case of the Earth’s greenhouse effect, gradual melting of Antarctica and the flooding of the coastal strip.
We’re talking about the average temperature of the Earth. The Earth’s average temperature is the situation when the concentration of CO2, the main greenhouse gas, doubles in the atmosphere. According to the scientists, this level can be reached before 2100.
Allegedly, the atmosphere pollution leads to faster global warming. The scientists believe that the indicator set by the 2015Paris Climate Agreement - to keep global warming below 1.5°C - is an increasingly distant hope.
The reality of apocalyptic climate change scenarios was proved by the disastrous bushfires in Australia where 2019 was the hottest, driest year ever, according to the annual climate statement of the national Bureau of Meteorology. This was caused by the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD), which is a cyclic natural phenomenon (similar to El Niño-Southern Oscillation) that manifests itself in the polarization of warm and cold waters along the equator in the Indian Ocean - the rains stop on the southern continent when the western part of the ocean warms up and the cold water come to the surface in its eastern part. The difference in the sea surface temperatures over the Indian Ocean this year was the highest over the past 60 years and this led to the dry weather last year.
The bushfires in Australia, in turn, caused large-scale carbon dioxide and soot emissions that, according to climatologists, also contributed to global warming.
Following the devastating fires, the rains, most powerful in recent years, fell on Australia. In 2019, wildfires also raged in Siberia. Such disasters were not expected by scientists until 2050.
January 2020 was the warmest on Earth in all the 140 years of the systematic meteorological observations. In early February, for the first time in history, the air temperature above +20oC was recorded in Antarctica. Four of the warmest months of January in the history fell in the last five years, and ten of these were in the last eighteen years. Moreover, according to the scientists, last January, no negative temperature anomalies were recorded anywhere on the Earth. More importantly, the highest-ever deviation from the average temperature in the 20th century, +1.14oC, was recorded in the year when there was no El Niño effect able to raise the global temperature by 0.1oC.
In a couple of months, a new season of fires can come. It is as well to remember that in addition to the anthropogenic factor and natural weather conditions, the human activity played a significant role in breaking out the fires.
